2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 02, 2005

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

02

Minnesota at Washington

Sunday 01/02 01:00 PM Eastern

1 unit on Unknown (risk 1 to return 1)  RESULT: WIN

Minnesota is the better team, right? Not so fast. While not as stellar a strory as the Buffalo Bills or Carolina Panthers, this Redskins team has turned an awful start into a respectable finish. They are playing better than Minnesota right now in my opinion and we're getting excellent value as a home underdog. Last week they lost a close one to Dallas. But prior to that, they had won four straight ATS, covering against both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Their defense is excellent, ranked 2nd in the league and surrendering under 17 points per game. In their last eight games, only Philly scored more than 17 points on them. They have the chance to really frustrate Culpepper, Moss (who really isn't himself) and Burleson here. This is by far the best defense the Vikings have faced all season. Minnesota hasn't seen anything like this and it could really throw them off. Minnesota's defense, on the other hand... well... bites. This gives us a shot at scoring some points. They've allowed three-straight 300+ yard passers and they are surrendering 28 points per game over their last four games. Heck, they made Joey Harrington look great! Prior to his off week last week, Patrick Ramsey looked very good against Philadelphia and San Francisco. I think he'll do well today. The Vikes certainly need the win here but I don't expect Washington to lay down and accomodate. The must-win scenario in Week 17 last year didn't help Minnesota much as they fell to Arizona. The Redskins want to go out on a winning note and want to win too. Road favorites with good offenses tend to do poorly against the spread. In the second half of the season, Minny is 0-2 ATS in this role. Take the home puppy with the great defense here against the team with no defense.

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