2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 09, 2005
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Minnesota at Green Bay
Sunday 01/09 04:30 PM Eastern
1 unit on Green Bay -6 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: LOSS
OK. Could be another trap but if it is one, I'll be a victim to it. I can't see backing the Vikings here. Sure, Green Bay only won the two earlier matchups by a total of 6 points. And these two teams typically play close games. But, Minnesota's on a downward spiral (again) and has to go play on the road outside against Brett Favre in January. That's not a good combination for them. Call the Packers "butter" because they're "on a roll", having won 9 of 11 to close out the season. And unlike some other teams playoff-bound teams, they didn't clip their own wings by resting starters. Their momentum should carry right into this game. While we know they are no longer invincible at home in the playoffs, they are still 14-1 in that situation. Minnesota backed into the playoffs after losing in week 17 and blowing a great start for the second straight year. Moss is stirring up trouble again and they have no confidence - nor should they. Favre carved up this defense for over 600 yards and 7 touchdowns in their two earlier meetings. Their defense is almost as bad as the Colts but their offense isn't that good. And their team lacks heart. I expect a high scoring affair here as Green Bay's defense, while not as bad as Minnesota's, is pretty poor. But I think Green Bay will score more. The Vikes are giving up 27 points a game. The Pack are 19-6 ATS over the past three seasons when they score 28 or more. Minnesota has allowed 8+ passing yards/attempt in eight games this season, including the last four in a row (remember that spiral thing). Green Bay is 40-12 ATS in their last 52 games when they gain 8+ passing yards per attempt. I expect Favre to put up a bunch of yards and TDs here and if/when he does, I think Green Bay covers this spread. One star on Green Bay minus the points.