2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 16, 2014
This pick was released to clients on November 13, 2014 at 5:44PM ET.
Minnesota at Chicago
Sunday 11/16 01:00 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Minnesota +3 (-105) (risk 1.5 to return 2.93) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 46.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: win
It is hard to imagine a team in as much disarray as the Chicago Bears. They are dropping passes left and right, Cutler is a mistake waiting to happen and when he gets a free target he is missing far too often. That is just the beginning of their problems. The Packers could have scored 80 points against them last week if they didn't call off the dogs at halftime. The Bears defense looked as if it never played a game before, and this team looks like they have internal struggles that are now carrying over onto the field. Meanwhile in Minnesota, the game appears to finally be slowing down for Teddy Bridgewater. He has been aided by the emerging Jerick McKinnon who is averaging 5 yards per carr (ala Adrien Peterson), and it is helping the rookie QB manage the offense. Bridgewater and the Vikings' offense have played two clean games in a row with no turnovers, and the result was two wins. The offense is not a strong point yet, but it is becoming serviceable, and most importantly mistake free. The Bears' offense has averaged just 17 points per game in their last four games, and defense has been a strong suit for Minnesota, allowing just under 18 points per game in their last four. This looks like a typical divisional battle, but the Bears are looking like a team that has packed it in, while Minnesota continues to grow. The Bears are now 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 within the conference. Over the past three seaosns they are 0-6 ATS at home vs. losing teams and 6-16 ATS in expected close games. You have to wonder how long Marc Trestman is going to last as under his guidance, the bears are 1-9 ATS at home. Minnesota wins with defense and no mistakes by the offense and has played seven of their last ten to the UNDER, and four of the last five meetings in this series have failed to eclipse the total. Play on Minnesota and the UNDER.
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