2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 29, 2015

This pick was released to clients on November 25, 2015 at 10:51PM ET.


Miami at New York

Sunday 11/29 01:00 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Miami +4 (-115) (risk 1.5 to return 2.8)  RESULT: loss

1 unit on Game Total UNDER 43 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95)  RESULT: loss

Will the real Miami Dolphins please stand up? Miami has talent, but is 3-3 SU/ATS the last six games, often losing when they're supposed to win and vice versa, like two weeks ago winning 20-19 at Philly as a +6 dog. QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown two or more TD passes in seven of last nine and passed for 250 yards or more in four of last five road games. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS after accumulating fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game. Miami is 3-2 under new coach Dan Campbell, who has stabilized things and gotten them to play better. RB Lamar Miller is averaging 112.8 yards from scrimmage in the last six games and has five rushing TDs and two TD catches in that span. They face a one-dimensional NY Jets offense that prefers to run, and Miami has a talented D-line. Miami is 22-6 UNDER the total on fieldturf and 15-6 UNDER in AFC East Divisional games. The Jets are sticking with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (16 TDs, 11 INTs), who has struggled at times and is playing through a surgically repaired left thumb. New York is on an 0-4-1 ATS run and 1-4 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. The Jets lost to the Texans last week, 24-17, as chalk. Center Nick Mangold is uncertain after needing several stitches to close a wound on right hand, which he uses to snap and CB Darrelle Revis is uncertain for the game while going through the NFL's concussion protocol. The Jets are also 5-2 UNDER the total in AFC East play. And when these rivals clash the UNDER is 5-1, including 5-0 UNDER in New York, plus the Dolphins are 5-2-1 ATS here while the road team is 6-1 ATS. Play Miami and the UNDER.

Dolphins 0 0 7 13 20
Jets 7 7 7 17 38



Last 21.0 years

Wins Losses Units
2492 2198 +198.88

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