2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 28, 2010

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

28

Miami at Las Vegas

Sunday 11/28 04:05 PM Eastern

4 units on Miami PICK () (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: win

3 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: win

These two teams have similar 2010 campaigns thus far. Both lost ugly games last week to drop them back to .500. Oakland was exposed 35-3 vs. Pittsburgh. Miami was embarrassed in a Thursday night primetime game getting shut out as a favorite at home 16-0 by Chicago. The loss by Miami was the sixth straight yoyo (losing after a win or winning after a loss). This team is in fact 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after an ATS loss. I again expect them to bounce back with another win here. When you are shut out at home in front of a national TV audience, it stings. It really stings. This team has had a week and half to stew and on this and prepare for the Raiders. I expect a very good focused effort from Miami here after last week's embarrassment. Yes, Oakland will be motivated too, but not nearly in the same way. They were supposed to lose to Pittsburgh so the motivation won't be as intense. The Dolphins are 4-1 on the road this season both SU and ATS, allowing just 16 points per game. Miami is also 9-2 ATS in their last eleven games as an underdog!I like the Fins in this game. I also like the OVER. This total is set very low at 38. It's an over-reaction to what happened last week (these two teams combining for 3 total points). Oakland home games have averaged 45 points per game. And, Miami has had a week and a half to prepare and should find some offensive success against a Raiders team that ranks 25th in the league at defending the run. The Raiders have allowed 24+ points in five games this season. The last 15 times that Miami has scored 14 or less points, they have come back to go 11-4 to the OVER. In their last ten games in the underdog role, the Fins have gone 7-3 OVER. Oakland is 6-2 OVER in their last eight games following a loss. I like Miami and the OVER here.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Dolphins 10 3 10 10 33
Raiders 7 7 0 3 17

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Wins Losses Units
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