2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 23, 2014
This pick was released to clients on November 20, 2014 at 4:52PM ET.
Miami at Denver
Sunday 11/23 04:25 PM Eastern
1 unit on Miami +7 (-105) (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: WIN
The Broncos lost badly last week in St. Louis, but they lost more than a game. This team was already suffering from injuries and things got worse. Julius Thomas is questionable with an ankle injury and Emmanuel Sanders has been downgraded to doubtful with a concussion. Monte Ball and Ronnie Hillman are out. That is a boatload of yardage, either hampered or out, as well as 23 TDs missing from the offense. Peyton Manning has also been slumping as he has thrown six INTs in his last three games. He has done very poorly this year when under pressure and Miami can bring the pressure. Miami will be the best defense the Broncos have seen, coming at a time when the offense is missing some key cogs. Miami has held opposing QBs to a 76 passer rating this season (best in the league) and that includes games against Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers. The defensive line has been disruptive with 30 sacks on the season. Denver's defense is pretty good, but it benefits from an offense that can keep them off the field enough to be effective, and a banged up offense will also effect the defense in a negative way. Miami has allowed 11.2 points per game over their last five games, and they haven't lost a game the last seven weeks by more than 3 points. Take the points on Miami.
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