2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 02, 2008

02

Miami at Denver

Sunday 11/02 04:05 PM Eastern

3 units on Game Total UNDER 50.5 -115 (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

It doesn't take long for a team to develop a reputation and for some reason, once they do, it sticks with them deep into the season. The Broncos reputation is one of great offense and terrible defense. It started with a 41 point outburst vs. Oakland in the opener. And when a national TV audience saw them go up and down the field vs. San Diego at will, bombing the Chargers for 39, the reputation was firmly established. That was followed by a 34 point performance vs. New Orleans, and now this team is an offensive powerhouse, right? Things have been completely different since then. Since then, Denver has faced defenses with an average ranking of 18.3, or in the bottom half of the league, and have managed to average just 14.8 ppg. They have faced two defenses ranked below Miami in the four games, and averaged 18 ppg. This total isn't set on reality, but rather perception that was established over a month ago. Miami has two running backs that should be able to keep each other fresh, and I'd be very surprised if they don't go straight down the gut of the Denver run stop unit that is being beaten off the line of scrimmage on a regular basis, allowing 5.4 ypc. That will tend to minimize the number of possessions for Denver, and shorten the game. This total is simply loaded with value, and I'll take the UNDER.

NFL

 

Last 20.2 years

Wins Losses Units
2396 2098 +220.38

Premium Picks Available Now

Get FREE NFL PICKS
with detailed analysis