Miami at Cleveland

A pair of snake bitten 1-5 teams. Miami has lost four of its last five games, although three of the losses were by margins of 5, 3, and 2 points. They're on a 3-1 ATS run. Unlike Cleveland, they actually have a good quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa (11 TDs, 7 INTs), along with skill position offensive talent like RB De'Von Achane (390 yards, 5.1 ypc). The Dolphins are on a 9-7 ATS run, which includes a 20-3 win at Cleveland late last season. Cleveland dumped Joe Flacco and has turned to rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. They've lost three in a row to Detroit (34-10), Minnesota (21-17), and Pittsburgh (23-9). The offense is 28th in total yards, 29th in rushing, 28th on third down (34.4%), and last in points (13.7 per game). The defense ranks 27th on third down (42.50%), with the bumbling Browns on a 5-17 ATS run. Play Miami.