2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 19, 2004

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

19

Miami at Cincinnati

Sunday 09/19 08:35 PM Eastern

2 units on Miami +5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)  RESULT: win

2 units on Miami +200 (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 6)  RESULT: loss

Miami is in trouble this season. They lost Ricky Williams and now they have a quarterback controversy. They also got manhandled by the Titans last week. What a perfect time to go with them. Yes, I said with them. For these reasons they are getting five points in a game they could easily win outright. Head coach Dave Wannstedt has had it beat into his head what a bad idea it was to yank Fiedler after one half last week. I think he sticks with Feely in this one throughout the game. I also think the team regroups after realizing it wasn't the absolute end of the world to play a game without Ricky Williams. The Dolphins played a horrible game against Tennessee, committing 14 penalties and committing three turnovers. If they can correct some of those errors, Miami has a very good shot in this one. The Dolphins still have one of the best defenses in the league and are historically very tough in the early part of the season (31-9 SU in September over last ten years). They haven't gone 0-2 to start the season in 20 years! I like this matchup for other reasons. The Dolphins are perfect against the Bengals in their last nine meetings dating back to 1977 and Cincinnati is riding a 2-9 ATS streak following a road loss. The Dolphins offense can get healthy against Cincinnati who surrendered a whoping 219 rushing yards last week to Seattle. Carson Palmer played very well last week but history is on our side. Rookie quarterbacks typically fare poorly in the NFL and Miami's defense as I mentioned is top notch. Visiting teams in a week 2 matchup of winless teams cover the spread 68% of the time. Also, road teams that scored very few points in week one when facing a team that surrendered a ton of points cover the spread at a 71% clip. I like Miami at +5 and for one unit and Miami straight-up at +200.

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Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
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