2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 17, 2004
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Miami at Buffalo
Sunday 10/17 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Miami +6.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Miami +250 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 3.5) RESULT: loss
Miami is (over)due and Buffalo doesn't deserve to be a 6.5 point favorite right now against anyone. I know - Miami is terrible. But, winless teams find a way to win - eventually. Buffalo is winless too but I'd rather be getting 6.5 points on my winless team than laying it. Buffalo doesn't have enough offense (especially against this Miami defense which is ranked 2nd in the league) to be laying this much chalk. Buffalo has the 28th ranked offense for goodness sake! I'm not saying Miami is better than Buffalo but I think this game should be closer to a 3 point line. Both teams have major offensive problems and quarterbacks that aren't producing. Miami's situation is worse as both Fiedler and Feely are hurt and as a result, third-stringer Sage Rosenfels may get his first start. But, can it really get any worse for this offense that is averaging under 9 points per game? I don't think so. Maybe a new face will spark some offense? Miami's defense tees off in this game against the statue-esque Drew Bledsoe. This guy can't move and as a result, he's been sacked 19 times - most in the NFL. Miami's in a good situation here, historically. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are scoring under two touchdowns per game when facing a team that allows 18-23 points per game are an incredible 80% against the spread. Winless underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points cover at an 82% clip. Miami's burned a lot of sports betters this season so far (including me) as they are just 1-4 ATS. I think we have value on this game due to that fact. Bet 220 to win 200 on Miami +6.5 and 100 to win 250 on them to win the game.