Los Angeles vs. Cincinnati

It's fourth down and goal to go in the biggest game of the year. Go for it or kick? If the decision is to go, what happens? This is an exciting scenario for sure, and from a rooting fan's interest, I hope to see it. But, that's not what we care about here. What we care about is finding opportunities to win bets. And we have one here. Again, oddsmakers tend to shade odds to make the betting public pay a premium on the bets they want to make: the "yes" bets. Joe Square wants to root for something to happen, not against something happening. This gives us an opportunity. First off, we need to remember that for this prop to win on a "yes" bet, a team has to a) decide to go for it on 4th down and b) score a touchdown (not a first down) on that play. History tells us this doesn't happen very often, especially in the Super Bowl. Out of the past twenty Super Bowls, this has happened just twice. Fair odds on a bet with a 90% chance of happening is -900. Yet here we are offered a gift at -400 - less than half of the expected odds. And, we might expect an even higher than 90% chance for this bet this season. Why? Because you have two very conservative coaches! This season, out of 32 teams, the Rams and Bengals rank #26 and #27 in attempted fourth-down conversions. They much prefer to kick the ball, whether that be a punt or a field goal. So, take this prop as a "no" for a Max Play.