2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 04, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

04

Los Angeles at Pittsburgh

Sunday 10/04 08:20 PM Eastern

4 units on Los Angeles +7 (-145) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: LOSS

There is always going to be potential line value when the defending Superbowl Champs are playing at home, and I see that in this line. The Steelers have taken on the familiar post-Superbowl lethargy, and realistically could be 0-3 entering this one. They have lost to two teams they were supposed to beat in Chicago and Cincinnati and they barely escaped one in OT against the now 0-3 Tennessee Titans. The Steelers have been outscored through their first three games and are now a TD favorite against a very talented San Diego team that will have playoffs revenge on their minds when they visit Pittsburgh for this one. There is a sense of déjà vu going on in Pittsburgh as this team is taking on characteristics of the 2006 team that opened the season 1-3 after winning the Superbowl the previous season. Guess who pinned loss number three on the Steelers in week four that year? Yes, the San Diego Chargers. So be careful about history as it may repeat itself. Pittsburgh is really missing Troy Polamalu, having suffered two upset losses since his absence. Without him, this team that is scoring just 15.7 points per game hasn't had the edge they need. San Diego certainly has a world of talent, and at times it doesn't manifest itself on the field. But this is a big game for them and a big spot, so I expect them to show up here. Norv Turner is good in this situation as he is 17-5 ATS in his head coaching career as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. And, the Chargers are 32-16 ATS in their last 48 games vs. teamst that average under 17 points per game. This is a San Diego team that has circled like vultures against a team that is reeling, as the Chargers are now a perfect 11-0 ATS as well as 10-1 SU over an AFC team coming off a straight-up loss as a favorite. The Chargers can smell blood here and I expect them to swoop into Pittsburgh with their "A" game. That will be good enough to take down an inflated number - maybe more. The Chargers get the call here.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Chargers 0 0 7 21 28
Steelers 14 7 7 10 38

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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