2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 28, 2004
This pick was released to clients on July 10, 2012 at 8:14PM ET.
Los Angeles at Kansas City
Sunday 11/28 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Los Angeles +3 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: win
1 unit on Los Angeles +130 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 2.3) RESULT: win
Another incorrect spread. Yeah, KC has a potent offense and they are at home. But, San Diego is a very good team and probably better than the Chiefs. As a result, I think we're getting good value here with the points. The Bolts are an amazing 8-1 ATS this year and it seems the public continues to be slow to react. The Chargers have won 4 straight. They have an amazing offense right now with Tomlinson, Brees, Antonio Gates and the addition of Keenan McCardell. Who do you cover on this team? There are too many weapons. They put up 42 points against Oakland four weeks ago and 43 against New Orleans the following week. They scored only 23 against the Raiders in the rematch last week but as coach Marty Schottenheimer said, they "left between 11 and 15 points on the field" due to rust off the bye. Agains this Kansas City defense, the second-highest scoring team in the league should have a lot of success. But how can they slow down Kansas City? Maybe in the same way New England did - by bottling up the run. San Diego boasts the league's top run defense, holding opponents to a stingy 76 yards per game. The Priest is again sitting on the sidelines for this one. Take the gift of the points as this should be closer to a pick-em game in my opinion. Small visiting dogs facing a team that has allowed 25+ points two straight weeks are 4-1 ATS this season and 66% over the past ten years. Two stars (2%) on the Bolts plus the field goal and another 1 star (1%) on them to pull the upset in Arrowhead.