2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 28, 2010
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Los Angeles at Indianapolis
Sunday 11/28 08:25 PM Eastern
4 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: WIN
The expected shootout between the Colts and the Chargers has this total topping the 50 mark. Point totals in that range don't often materialize, despite the offenses in play. In fact, in games with these two high-octane offenses, four of the last five have played UNDER the total. The Colts have a combination of problems offensively. Peyton Manning, while still certainly among the league's elite QB's, is playing with an injury plagued offense and he may in fact be losing a step. This season, Manning has career lows in yards per attempt at 7.0, a QB rating at 93.9 and is on schedule to throw 700+ passes, where his previous high is 571. However, he's having to force the issue and his compeltion percentage is lower than any prior season. The Colts numbers look like this. They have scored 31 or more in 33 of 80 games, until recently. In their last 18 games they have reached that 31 mark just twice. That's a big dropoff. On the road this season, the Chargers are very pedestrian, averaging just 21.4 points per game. The Chargers can play defense with the best and have a good secondary. Indy is holding opponents at home this season to just 14.2 points per game. So, I don't see a big shootout here. During November's games since 2005, the Colts have played to ten totals of 50 or higher and the UNDER is 9-1. And, after a game in which 50+ total points were scored, the Colts are 12-3 UNDER over the past three seasons. This total ahs been set for the public, not history. I'm going UNDER.
|Los Angeles ChargersChargers||10||6||10||10||36|