2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 18, 2015
This pick was released to clients on October 15, 2015 at 9:04PM ET.
Los Angeles at Green Bay
Sunday 10/18 04:25 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Green Bay -10 (-115) (risk 1.5 to return 2.8) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Game Total OVER 50.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: loss
The Green Bay Packers have been impressive in their 5-0 start. A lot of that has to do with Aaron Rodgers. Despite losing Jordy Nelson for the year, Davonte Adams, and a hampered Randall Cobb, Rodgers just makes his receivers better. Rodgers is doing it with both his arms and legs, and what might be more worthy of discussion is the emergence of the Packers defense. The Packers have eight INTs and 20 sacks on the season, and allows 316 yards per game. They are now the only team in the top 10 in both points scored and fewest points allowed. Rodgers seldom if ever has two bad games in a row. Over the last five years, when the Pack has been a favorite of -7 to -14, his passer rating has averaged 117.1 and the Pack is 22-12 ATS. Looking deeper, since the start of the 2007 season, Green Bay is an NFL best 87-56-3 ATS, and is 46-25-3 ATS at home, including 20-4-1 ATS as a home favorite from -8.5 to -14, where they are also 6-0 ATS vs. the AFC. The Packers also fit a big chalk bye system that plays on certain big favorites prior to their bye, which is a stunning 51-13 ATS. San Diego has issues, but one of them is not Phillip Rivers who continues to move the chains for the Chargers and put up points. The problem is that the Chargers defense has allowed all five teams on their schedule to score 24 points or more. The Chargers just 3-13 ATS in their last 16. Green Bay owns a 23-11 mark to the OVER in their last 34 at home vs. a team with a losing record. Lay the points on Green Bay and take the OVER.
|Los Angeles ChargersChargers||3||7||7||3||20|
|Green Bay PackersPackers||14||3||7||3||27|
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