2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 18, 2005

This pick was released to clients on July 12, 2012 at 7:52PM ET.

18

Los Angeles at Denver

Sunday 09/18 04:15 PM Eastern

1 unit on Los Angeles +3 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)  RESULT: PUSH

Hard to believe that one of these two teams is going to be 0-2 after this week. Both were expected to have good seasons. Both lost as 5 point favorites last week. But, the losses were very different in my book. San Diego lost a very close game on a pass broken-up in the end zone. A pass that probably would have gone to, and been caught by, Antonio Gates if he was playing. Dallas played great and San Diego lost. Denver got smashed on both sides of the ball. The most overrated quarterback in the league got exposed for what he is - a below average quarterback that should be backing up a real starter. And, Denver's supposed great defense was torched by an offense that couldn't move the ball against a high-school team last year. Denver just looked flat horrible and the lustre has worn off Mike Shanahan in Denver. While the Broncos normally own San Diego in games played in Denver, this is a new era and San Diego is the better team. Don't underestimate the impact of Gates' absence. It truly made the difference last week and if San Diego had won that game, they'd likely be favored here. Gates is playing in this game and will be at full strength which can't be said for Denver's Mike Anderson and Champ Bailey, both injured seriously in week one. Tatum Bell will start at running back. He's been much hyped but I need to ask why he didn't start if he is that good. Clearly, at least in the mind of Denver coaches, they are taking a step back at that position this week. With Bailey hampered, look for a big game from Drew Brees and Keenan McCardell. Home teams at +3 to -3 off a road loss are just 23-54 (30%) ATS in September games since 1983. My computer matchup likes San Diego here as well. One star on the Chaaagers plus the points.

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