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2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 09, 2011

09

Los Angeles at Denver

Sunday 10/09 04:15 PM Eastern

3 units on Denver PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

When a bad team loses a game and gives up 49 points, you can be sure that the oddsmakers need to find creative ways to get any action on that team next week. Over 80% of the public is jumping on San Diego here (more than any othe game on the board) but the line hasn't really moved. That tells us two things. First, the oddsmakers knew that coming and juiced it over the magical number of 3 to start. Second, they aren't doing anything to get more bets in on Denver (hmmmmm). You can be sure we are getting some line value in this game with the divisional home dog of greater than a field goal. Pretty soon people are going to have to realize that as good as the Chargers may look on paper, it simply doesn't translate to the field. Yes, the Chargers are 3-1, but they are not making backers any money with a 1-3 ATS mark. Phllip Rivers, often mentioned with Brady, Manning and Rodgers, hasn't lived up to the billing so far this season. He has more INTs than TD passes as the Chargers are barely out-playing their mistakes. It would be easy to diminish the Broncos chances here after watching the Packers’ offense go for 49 points against them last week. That was on the road, and the Broncos are a better team at home where the last five games have seen them lose by just 5 points in their worst effort. The Chargers are yet to cash any of their last six as a road favorite of 3.5-10 points, as they often find a way to self-destruct. The Broncos have a bad taste in their mouths after getting torched a week ago for 49, and I expect an inspired effort at home where they are now 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 as a home dog. The Broncos have also gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. great offenses (teams averaging 375+ yards per game). And, in the Norv Turner era, the Bolts are historically slow starting, going only 4-12 ATS on the road during the first half of the season. Take Denver and the points.

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