2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 12, 2013

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

12

Los Angeles at Denver

Thursday 12/12 08:25 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Denver -9.5 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 1.5)  RESULT: LOSS

In their first matchup this season, the San Diego Chargers did as good of a job as anyone in holding Denver to 28 points. The Broncos still managed nearly 400 yards, but were able to run just 58 plays. The Chargers were able to run the ball at home vs. the Broncos defense to gain 131 yards on 35 carries. The problem is that they still didn't cover 7 points, and now on the road they are just +10 dog? That spells value on the Broncos as the line is not reflective of where it should be. The Chargers are certainly not playing any better, and Manning is good at looking at film and finding better ways to attack. The Chargers' defense has given up 88 points in their last tree on the road to Miami, Washington, and Kansas City - teams that average the 17th best offense in the league. Denver is in a whole different league, averaging 42.2 points per game at home, and they should have no problem getting most or all of that here. No team has scored more than 28 points on Denver in a regular season home game in their last 13. The Chargers are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a win, and 0-5 ATS if that win was by 14 or more. Denver takes care of business vs. losing teams, cashing seven of their last eight ATS vs. sub .500 teams. And in the John Fox era, Denver is 19-10 ATS as a favorite, exceeding expectations consistently. Lay the points on Denver.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Chargers 3 14 7 3 27
Broncos 10 0 0 10 20

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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