2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 13, 2009
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Los Angeles at Dallas
Sunday 12/13 04:15 PM Eastern
4 units on Los Angeles +3.5 (-114) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: win
4 units on Game Total UNDER 49 -110 (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: win
The Chargers are arguably playing as well as any team in the league right now. New Orleans and Indianapolis are grabbing the headlines thanks to perfect play all season. But, few have noticed that the Chargers have reeled off seven wins in a row by a combined score of 218-106. That's a winning margin of over two touchdowns per game! That's at least as good as New Orleans or Indianapolis and do you think either of those teams would be instilled as an underdog here? The under-appreciated Phillip Rivers is a good part of the reason this team is playing at such a high level. He has a QB rating of 105 and has thrown 21 TDs to just 5 INTs, yet he doesn't get the ink like the other top QBs. The Cowboys have the marquee name and the name QB with Tony Romo, but they are just 1-4 vs. teams with a winning record this season. The fact is that they aren't as good as their record. This is a team that has already lost four games outright as a favorite this season, and San Diego is a very loud barking dog here - one that is 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 when getting points. Dallas' December woes are now known to all. The Cowboys have a penchant for fading late in the season and are just 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 December games including 1-9-2 in week 14, which usually begins the home stretch of the season in December. This is a good matchup for the Chargers who thrive against good offensive teams like Dallas. San Diego is 8-1 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that average over 5.5 yards per play. They are also 15-4 ATS over that span when coming off back-to-back wins. Here we get to grab the superior team getting points. I also like the UNDER here. San Diego has held their last seven opponents to just 15 points per game. Those opponents weren't as good offensively as the Cowboys, but Dallas' offfense that was steaming in the early season, has cooled of late. Dallas has managed just 15.5 points per game in their last four games. They have allowed more than 20 points just once in their last 10 games and that came in an OT game. Over those ten games, Dallas has averaged just 15.9 points per game. So we have two teams that over 7-10 games have each averaged less than 16 points per game allowed, yet this total is set very high at 48.5. This one goes to the Chargers and the UNDER.
|Los Angeles ChargersChargers||7||3||0||10||20|