2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 20, 2011
Los Angeles at Chicago
Sunday 11/20 04:15 PM Eastern
2 units on Los Angeles PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: loss
2 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: win
The San Diego Chargers finally got out of the gate quick. Unfortunately, they are at it again, having lost four straight games, three as the favorite. The Chargers have allowed 30 points per game in those losses. And, the team is hobbled by injuries. The Bears have been playing as good as anyone of late winning four straight and five of six. So the obvious pick is Chicago here, right? Not so fast. The NFL is a buy-low, sell high league and in this game we can do both. The Bears were very good against the run last season, but have really slipped this season. They rank No. 30 allowing opponents over 5 yards per carry. Ryan Matthews is getting healthy and could have an impact here. The Bears have suddenly become more offensive, but a shootout with the Chargers is not in their best interests. The Chargers can score quickly as the Packers found out, and a 21-point lead melted very quickly. The Chargers have been bad for four straight weeks, but in spite of that they are one game out in the AFC West. Due to a scheduling quirk, the Bears will play their next four games vs. the AFC West. The Chargers have tons of talent, and if they limit their mistakes here they will win this game outright because they are the better team on paper. Rivers is at his best as an underdog, going 12-7 ATS for his career as a dog. The public is all over the Bears and the line is going in the opposite direction which is always a good sign for the underdog. The Chargers often dissapoint in games they are supposed to win but they thrive in this role at 22-8-3 ATS in their last 33 as a dog. This line is in the sweet spot for Norv Turner as well as his teams are 19-7 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. In their last 19 games after scoring 25+ points in back-to-back games, the Bears are 3-16 ATS. Is Chicago really as good as they seem of late? Consider they have benefited from a 2-to-1 turnover margin advantage in their last four games (12-6). That sort of luck doesn't continue forever. The Chargers are also 6-1-1 to the OVER in their last eight on the road, and have played four straight as a dog without an UNDER. The Bears are 25-10 to the OVER in their last 35 as a home favorite, and overall are 8-2 to the OVER in their last 10 home games. The Bears are also 7-1 to the OVER in their last eight as a favorite. The Bears could be over-confident enough to get in a shootout here, and that will backfire. Take San Diego and play the OVER.