2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 08, 2013

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Las Vegas at Indianapolis

Sunday 09/08 01:00 PM Eastern

1 unit on Las Vegas +11 (-108) (risk 1 to return 1)  RESULT: win

1 unit on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 (risk 1 to return 1)  RESULT: win

Not many players had more impact on their team last year than Andrew Luck. The Colts went from 2-14 two years back to 11-5 last year. The offense generated 114 more points with him at QB than they did the previous year. This, however, is not a team without concerns. The Colts may have won 11 games, but six of those were decided by 4 points or less, and a seventh was decided in overtime. Additionally, a pair of others were decided by just one possession (7 points). All told, the Colts won 9 of their 11 games by 7 points or less, and could just have easily finished the season below .500. That is backed up by the fact that Indiy was outgained on the season and outscored on the season last year! That's not an 11-5 team. That's a lucky 7-9 team. In five of their seven losses, including their one and done playoffs game, they were outscored by 108 points! The offense was indeed better, but not by as much as it looked, as the Colts topped the 30-point mark just once. So, Indy comes into 2013 overrated. Oakland finished just 4-12, but there were positive signs late in the season. The defense was in shambles at mid season, going through a four-game stretch of allowing 42.3 points per game. They improved upon that to finish the season with their last five games allowing just 17.4 ppg. The Raiders have a new offensive coordinator, and he vows to turn Darren McFadden free and grind games out, which will enhance their opportunity to stay competitive. Oakland has improved defensively, at least on paper, with the addition of three CBs and a savvy veteran safety in Charles Woodson, who has a nose for the ball. Overall, this Indianapolis team was not as good as they appeared to be a year ago, and Oakland is certainly capable of staying inside double-digits. Take the points with Oakland. Also grab the UNDER. Indy is also 11-2 to the UNDER in their last 13 at home and as stated, their offense was really mediocre last season. They managed just 21.5 points per game last season. In their final four games of the season (including their playoff stinker), the Colts managed just 16.5 points per game. Oakland will look to shorten the game with a lot of Darren McFadden and clock ticking. In their last 36 road games with a total of 46 or higher, the Raiders are 25-11 to the UNDER. Take the points on Oakland and play the UNDER.

Raiders 0 7 3 7 17
Colts 7 7 0 7 21



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