2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 28, 2013
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Las Vegas at Dallas
Thursday 11/28 04:30 PM Eastern
0.5 unit on Dallas -9.5 (-105) (risk 0.5 to return 0.5) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 50 -110 (risk 1 to return 1) RESULT: loss
The Dallas Cowboys have done a great job on Thanksgiving lately. They have some business to take care of this week as they enter the game at 6-5 and tied with Philadelphia. No letting up here vs. one of the league's worst teams. The Cowboys defense has not been good this season, but they seem to manage to get stops when they need them. They probably won't be challenged a great deal against an Oakland team that is down to their third quarterback, with their top RB Darren McFadden most likely to sit this one out. That probably means a limited playbook for Matt McGloin. Dallas meanwhile, gets DeMarco Murray back, who has been their only effective runner. That should allow Dallas to close the game by moving the chains with the running game and eating up clock. Pryor is a huge part of the running game for Oakland, and with McFadden out and a limited playbook, I don't see Oakland moving the ball with great success. Dallas has quietly become a good cover team, as they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11. Dallas' achilles heel is their defense but the Raiders are not a team to take advantage of that. In fact, Oakland is just 1-8 ATS the past three season vs. teams like Dallas that allow 375+ yards per game. And, under Dennis Allen, this team is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams like Dallas (teams averaging over 5.6 yards per play). Take the Cowboys. Also take the UNDER. This Raiders offense has struggled offensively all year and is without their top two playmakers here. Over the past three seasons, they are also 8-1 UNDER when facing good passing teams like Dallas (teams that complete 64%+ of their passes). Oakland is also 10-3 to the UNDER in their last 13 following a loss. They are also 8-1-1 to the UNDER in their last 10 after allowing more than 250 passing yards their previous game. And, Dallas iis a perfect 6-0 UNDER after back-to-back OVERs the past three seasons. Take Dallas and UNDER in this one.
|Las Vegas RaidersRaiders||7||14||0||3||24|