2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 27, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

27

Las Vegas at Cleveland

Sunday 12/27 01:00 PM Eastern

4 units on Las Vegas +3 (+104) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: loss

3 units on Game Total UNDER 37.5 -115 (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: win

The Raiders undoubtedly have QB issues, but last week they pounded the Broncos for 241 yards on the ground. Charlie Frye gets the start here and against Cleveland, he'll be good enough. After watching the Chiefs go for 5.6 yards a pop vs. the Browns, I expect Oakland to find some success in this game. The Raiders were struggling against the run, but the last two weeks have held opponents to less than 3.8 yards per carry in each contest. Brady Quinn is done for the year, meaning Derek Anderson gets the QB assignment which hasn't been good for the Browns. He has already had two chances to secure the starting role, with the lowly Quinn his competition. He couldn't grab the starting spot either time. The Raiders and Browns are both bad teams, but the Raiders have shown a much higher ceiling with wins over Denver, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Cleveland has had no success as a favorite and really don't belong in that role as the last four times they have been given the oddsmakers edge they are 0-4 ATS. The fact is that in those four games, the Browns lost them all straight up, which certainly is more likely than not to repeat itself here. The Raiders have played their best ball on the road this year, posting three of their five wins, while the Browns are just 1-5 at home. I like the Raiders in this one. I also like the UNDER. Oakland averages 12.5 points per game while Cleveland averages 14.2 per game and both are starting backup quarterbacks. The Raiders are a perfect 7-0 UNDER since last season when facing a team that allows 24+ points per game. Cleveland is 18-6 UNDER in their last 24 home games posted as a small favorite of 3 or fewer points. The Browns are also 9-2 UNDER off an OVER in their prior game. I expect a tight close-fought very low-scoring game here.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Raiders 3 6 0 2 9
Browns 10 7 3 3 23

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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