2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

August 28, 2004

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Las Vegas at Arizona

Saturday 08/28 10:00 PM Eastern

4 units on Arizona +270 (moneyline) (risk 4 to return 14.8)  RESULT: LOSS

Those of you who know me know I have a weakness for the home dog. We get a good one here. Norv Turner's defense, at least in the preseason, isn't putting up much of a fight so far. They've surrenderd 33 points to San Francisco and 21 to Dallas, not known as an offensive juggernaut. New Arizona head coach Denny Green has got to be hankerin' for a win right about now. He's lost his first two by an average of over 20 points per game. Doesn't jive too well with the story he's been telling about a new era in Arizona. This is Green's last chance to win over the home crowd and hometown press before the start of the regular season. Arizona's gonna come out fighting in this one. Green, when he was with Minnesota, was 16-4 SU at home in the preseason. Home dogs following two straight ATS losses in the preseason cover the spread 70% of the time in their next game. Also, coaches that are new to their team tend to perform very well in the home underdog role. Two units on Arizona to win the game outright. Lay 200 to win 270 in this one.



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