Bettors tend to shy away from juiced bets. They would much rather risk a little to win a lot. Here's an example of a bet in which the juice offered provides value. How do I know? It's all in the math. In 54 prior Super Bowls, 41 winners scored last. That's a rate of 76%. And, it has gotten even better. In the last 38 Super Bowls, the rate has increased to 84% (32-6). But here's where it gets crazy good? In the last 21 Super Bowls, the team that scored last has won 19 times (91%) including seven straight since Super Bowl XLVII. So, fair odds here are in the range of -315 (based on 76%) to -1000 (91%). To get this bet in at -200 is a gift from the gambling gods. Take the YES on this bet as a Max Play.
These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 28, 2021 at 2:28PM ET.
NFL
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
February 7, 2021
6:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Team to Score Last Wins the Game = YES (risk 2 to return 3)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Tampa Bay +3.5 (-105) (risk 2 to return 3.9)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 10.5 (risk 2 to return 3.63)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 14.5 (risk 1.5 to return 3.02)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (risk 1.5 to return 4.29)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (risk 2 to return 2.8)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Score in Last 3:30 of 4th Quarter = YES (risk 2 to return 3.14)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 39.5 yards (risk 1.5 to return 2.55)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (risk 2 to return 3.44)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (risk 2 to return 3.74)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Score in the first 4:00 minutes = NO (risk 2 to return 3.75)
Result:
WIN
WIN
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