Kansas City at Tampa Bay

Will there be a huge game-breaker play in this game? Will one team score a long touchdown of 40 or more yards? Over the first 54 Super Bowls, a team has scored a 45+ yard touchdown 32 times (59% of the time). And, the games that didn't have a long touchdown were front-loaded in the early years. In the first 20 Super Bowls, eight of the games saw the longest touchdown remain under 45 yards. But in the last 34 Super Bowls, only 14 games have failed to produce a touchdown of 45+ yards. That's just 41% of the time. And, this game features two of the top five scoring offenses in the league and very middling defenses ranked #9 and #10 in points allowed. And, this particular prop bet at Sportsbetting.ag has the over/under here set super low at 39.5. I estimate that we can expect roughly a 75% chance of winning this bet, while getting odds that imply only a 59% chance. Take the OVER on this prop bet.