2020 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 07, 2021

This pick was released to clients on January 28, 2021 at 4:28PM ET.

07

Kansas City at Tampa Bay

Sunday 02/07 06:30 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 39.5 yards (risk 1.5 to return 2.55)  RESULT: LOSS

Will there be a huge game-breaker play in this game? Will one team score a long touchdown of 40 or more yards? Over the first 54 Super Bowls, a team has scored a 45+ yard touchdown 32 times (59% of the time). And, the games that didn't have a long touchdown were front-loaded in the early years. In the first 20 Super Bowls, eight of the games saw the longest touchdown remain under 45 yards. But in the last 34 Super Bowls, only 14 games have failed to produce a touchdown of 45+ yards. That's just 41% of the time. And, this game features two of the top five scoring offenses in the league and very middling defenses ranked #9 and #10 in points allowed. And, this particular prop bet at Sportsbetting.ag has the over/under here set super low at 39.5. I estimate that we can expect roughly a 75% chance of winning this bet, while getting odds that imply only a 59% chance. Take the OVER on this prop bet.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Chiefs 3 3 3 0 9
Buccaneers 7 14 10 0 31

NFL

2020-21 Recent Results

Wins Losses Units
99 83 +5.23

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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