These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 28, 2021 at 2:28PM ET.
img NFL

Kansas City at Tampa Bay

February 7, 2021
img6:30 PM Eastern

When you think about the end of a football game, what comes to mind first? If you are like most people, you thought of the winning team taking a knee in victory formation, or running out the clock by running the ball. This can often take a long time, what seems like an eternity. So how likely is it that a team scores in the waning moments of a Super Bowl? Turns out it?s quite often. In 5 Super Bowls, a team has scored in the final 3:30 of the game 34 times. That comes out to 63% of the time. Fair odds on that kind of bet are -170 which is better than what the oddsmakers are offering on this prop. Good job bookmakers. But hold the presses! If we look deeper we find out that things have changed dramatically over the years, providing us tremendous value. Through Super Bowl 27, there were only 12 instances of this happening. But, in the last 27 years, it has happened 22 times for an 81% win rate. Fair odds on a bet like that are -425. With these extremely high-scoring teams, I?m all over that at -175 odds. Take the YES as a Max Play.

2 units on Score in Last 3:30 of 4th Quarter = YES (risk 2 to return 3.14)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Tampa Bay +3.5 (-105) (risk 2 to return 3.9)
Result:
WIN
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 10.5 (risk 2 to return 3.63)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 14.5 (risk 1.5 to return 3.02)
Result:
LOSS
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (risk 1.5 to return 4.29)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (risk 2 to return 2.8)
Result:
LOSS
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 39.5 yards (risk 1.5 to return 2.55)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (risk 2 to return 3.44)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (risk 2 to return 3.74)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Team to Score Last Wins the Game = YES (risk 2 to return 3)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Score in the first 4:00 minutes = NO (risk 2 to return 3.75)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Kansas City Chiefs
3
3
3
0
9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers img
7
14
10
0
31
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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