Kansas City at Tampa Bay

If the first-quarter is the proverbial tortoise, the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl is the hare. More often than not, the final quarter has been a score-fest in the NFL, both in the regular season and, especially, in the Super Bowl. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around in this game, all the jitters are gone and it's no-holds-barred. The NFL league average in the fourth quarter (plus overtime) this season was 14.2 - a full 48% higher than the first quarter! In Chiefs games this year, a ridiculous 16.9 points were scored on average in the fourth-quarter. In Tampa Bay games, 12.2 points were scored on average. So based on those numbers, we might expect around 14.6 points in the 4th quarter of this game this year - again right where the oddsmakers set the total. However, that?s not the whole story. In the Super Bowl, these averages have traditionally increased - a lot. In fact, 22 of the last 33 Super Bowl games (67%) have seen the fourth quarter go OVER the posted total. Thirteen years ago, the Pats and Giants combined for 21 fourth quarter points in a game in which just 31 total points were scored. Twelve years ago, after seeing just 27 points scored in the first three quarters combined, 23 points were put up in the final quarter by Arizona and Pittsburgh. Eleven seasons ago, 14 points scored in the 4th quarter. Ten years ago, the Packers and Steelers put up 18 fourth quarter points. Nine years back, the Giants and Patriots only scored 6 in a rare fourth-quarter UNDER. Eight years ago, 14 points were scored by the 49ers and Ravens, going OVER the total. Seven years ago was another rare UNDER (7 points scored) as the game was well out of hand with Seattle leading 36-8 going into the fourth so neither team was really pressing any more. Six seasons back, things returned to form with 14 fourth-quarter points and a resulting OVER. Five years ago we saw another rare UNDER in the fourth quarter with 11 points scored. Four years ago, the Patriots put up 19 points alone to push the fourth-quarter OVER the total. Three years ago, 19 points were scored by the Patriots and Eagles. Two years back, we saw a rare UNDER with 10 points being scored, but note that the 10 fourth quarter points in the game between the Patriots and Rams represented 63% of the points scored in the entire game (16)! And, last season Kansas City put up 21 points by themselves. In this game, I think these two very prolific offenses (ranked #2 and #5 in the league in scoring) will be clicking by the fourth quarter, especially considering that neither of these defenses is very good. I also think there?s a high chance that the game will not be out of reach in the fourth quarter, leading to an urgency to score for both teams. With a 67% historical trend backing us, go with the OVER here in the 4th quarter.