Kansas City at Tampa Bay

This season, an average of 9.6 points per game were scored in the first quarter of all NFL games. Kansas City games this season averaged 10.5 first-quarter points while Bucs games averaged 11.1 first-quarter points. Average the two and we get 10.5 points which is exactly what we see for this total. But, I believe this game will stay lower scoring in the first quarter than that. As the magnitude of this game continues to grow each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early in the game. Drew Brees was quoted as saying about this game that "It took me till the third series to settle down." Bill Romanowski said of his Super Bowl, "I didn't remember the first four plays." Each team has prepared meticulously but they still need some time to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent. Above all, both teams are trying to avoid big mistakes early on. Players and coaches are often nervous, and tight. So the play calling, and the play on the field, tend to be conservative in the early going. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low scoring one as an average of 8.4 points per game has been scored. And, it's been getting lower-scoring as the game gets bigger and bigger. Nineteen of the last twenty two Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points scored in the first quarter. One of the years this bet went OVER the total was in 2011 but that came only thanks to a very rare pick-6 touchdown. Here are the first-quarter scores the past nine years; 9, 10, 8, 0, 10, 0, 12, 0, 10. The last thirteen years have seen an average of just 6.75 points scored in the first quarter (3, 3, 10, 14, 9, 10, 8, 0, 10, 0, 12, 0, 10). You will notice three zeros in that set, including two of the last four years. The first zero came despite 52 points being scored in the game and the second zero came despite 62 points being scored in the game! The quarterbacks in those thirteen games: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady (six times), Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning (three times), Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson (twice), Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes. So, don't just automatically fear Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady here. Even in Super Bowl games that were expected to be very high-scoring, the first quarter has gone UNDER the total much more often than not. Twelve years ago the total between the Giants and Patriots was 53.5. In that game, 3 points were scored in the first-quarter. Ten years ago, the total in the Saints-Colts game was set at 56.5. The first-quarter total went under the 10.5 line. Eight years ago the total was 53.5 and the first-quarter went UNDER. Four years the total was set sky-high at 58 and the first-quarter points scored tallied a big goose egg. Two seasons back, the total was a sky-high 56.5 and the first quarter saw no points at all. Last year, the total was 54 and only 10 points were scored in the first quarter. This game is expected to be high-scoring again with a total of 56.6, but history indicates that most of that scoring will come in the final three quarters after nerves have settled. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady may light things up, but if they do it's not likely to come in the first quarter. Take the first-quarter UNDER as a Max Play.