These Pro Picks were released to clients on February 09, 2023 at 10:59AM ET.
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Kansas City vs. Philadelphia

February 12, 2023
img6:30 PM Eastern

In 2022, the average number of field goals per game was just 3.31. The Chiefs averaged just 1.53 field goals made per game while the Eagles kicked 1.22 per game. That comes to a combined total of just 2.75! But, this is not just any game. This is the big game and the Super Bowl is a different animal. Teams are generally less conservative overall in the Super Bowl when all is said and done. It's all or nothing. The coaches do not want to leave anything on the field. If a team is ahead, they don't want to give their opponent any chance of coming back. If a team is behind, they are not playing to keep it close - they are playing to win the game, no matter what. So, there are fewer field goals in the Super Bowl than in your average NFL game. Through the first 56 Super Bowls, there have only been 142 made field goals which comes to an average of 2.66 per game. That's 20% less than this year's regular-season average of 3.31. In only 15 of the 56 Super Bowl games have more than three field goals been made! That comes to just 27% and fair odds on that are -275. Yet, we get -165 odds here on a total of 4, giving us a lot of wiggle room. This bet should come through about three-quarters of the time. Take the UNDER on this prop as a Max Play.

2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 4 (risk 2 to return 3.21)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Philadelphia -1.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on First Quarter UNDER 10 (risk 1 to return 1.74)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Fourth Quarter OVER 13.5 (risk 1 to return 1.77)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (risk 1 to return 3.1)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (risk 1.5 to return 2.63)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Total Interceptions OVER 1.5 (risk 2 to return 4.4)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (risk 2 to return 3.6)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Team to Score Last Wins the Game = YES (risk 2 to return 3)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Score in the first 4:30 minutes = NO (risk 2 to return 2.71)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Opening kickoff will be a touchback = NO (risk 2 to return 4.2)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Touchdown scored on 4th down = NO (risk 2 to return 2.5)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Unanswered = YES (risk 1.5 to return 2.36)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Kansas City Chiefs img
7
7
7
17
38
Philadelphia Eagles
7
17
3
8
35
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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