These Pro Picks were released to clients on February 09, 2023 at 10:59AM ET.
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Kansas City vs. Philadelphia

February 12, 2023
img6:30 PM Eastern

Don't expect a clean game here by both quarterbacks. I know these are elite guys. You don't make it to the Super Bowl without elite quarterback play. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 0.61 interceptions per game in his career and 0.70 this season. Jalen Hurts has averaged 0.42 picks per game in his career and 0.4 this season. But let's not forget that in the Super Bowl, we also see elite defenses. The Eagles notched 17 interceptions this season or 0.89 per game. The Chiefs nabbed 0.58 per game. So we can see why this Over/Under is set at 1.5. But again, the Super Bowl is no ordinary game. It's very rare to see quarterbacks avoid interceptions in this game. In 56 prior games, only twice have we seen a clean game with no picks thrown. There have actually been 20 Super Bowls with three or more picks thrown. The number of times two or more interceptions were thrown is 41 out of 56 (73%) including two last year. On average, 2.3 interceptions get thrown in the Super Bowl. And of course, with more passing in the current game, we see more interceptions than in the early years. The last 22 Super Bowls have seen one or more picks thrown. The rate of seeing 2+ interceptions over the past 48 games is 77% (37-11). So, to get +135 odds on a bet with a three-fourths chance of winning is an absolute gift. Take the OVER on this prop as a Max Play.

2 units on Total Interceptions OVER 1.5 (risk 2 to return 4.4)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Philadelphia -1.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on First Quarter UNDER 10 (risk 1 to return 1.74)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Fourth Quarter OVER 13.5 (risk 1 to return 1.77)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (risk 1 to return 3.1)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (risk 1.5 to return 2.63)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 4 (risk 2 to return 3.21)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (risk 2 to return 3.6)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Team to Score Last Wins the Game = YES (risk 2 to return 3)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Score in the first 4:30 minutes = NO (risk 2 to return 2.71)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Opening kickoff will be a touchback = NO (risk 2 to return 4.2)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Touchdown scored on 4th down = NO (risk 2 to return 2.5)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Unanswered = YES (risk 1.5 to return 2.36)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Kansas City Chiefs img
7
7
7
17
38
Philadelphia Eagles
7
17
3
8
35
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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