These Pro Picks were released to clients on February 09, 2023 at 10:59AM ET.
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Kansas City vs. Philadelphia

February 12, 2023
img6:30 PM Eastern

It's the Super Bowl. The two teams that made it here are deserving and great. They are probably at least relatively evenly matched. It should be a back-and-forth duke-it-out sort of affair, right? If you asked a dozen of your friends whether one of the two teams will score three-straight times without the other team scoring, probably most of them would say "no way!" Your gut tells you that this will be a close even battle the whole way. One team scoring back-to-back-to-back unanswered just isn't likely to happen, right? That's why most people bet the NO on this prop. It's also why the oddsmakers end up shading the line. They know that they are offering great odds on the YES bet but since most of their action is on the other side, they are okay with it. That leaves a great opportunity for us to take advantage. The reality is that in 56 Super Bowls, there have been 39 games in which one or both of the teams scored three-straight times unanswered during the game. That comes out to 70% of the time. Fair odds on a 70% bet are around -235. So, laying -175 on this bet has value and it should come through around 70% of the time we make it. Take the YES.

1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Unanswered = YES (risk 1.5 to return 2.36)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Philadelphia -1.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on First Quarter UNDER 10 (risk 1 to return 1.74)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Fourth Quarter OVER 13.5 (risk 1 to return 1.77)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (risk 1 to return 3.1)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (risk 1.5 to return 2.63)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Total Interceptions OVER 1.5 (risk 2 to return 4.4)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 4 (risk 2 to return 3.21)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (risk 2 to return 3.6)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Team to Score Last Wins the Game = YES (risk 2 to return 3)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Score in the first 4:30 minutes = NO (risk 2 to return 2.71)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Opening kickoff will be a touchback = NO (risk 2 to return 4.2)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Touchdown scored on 4th down = NO (risk 2 to return 2.5)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Kansas City Chiefs img
7
7
7
17
38
Philadelphia Eagles
7
17
3
8
35
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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