Kansas City vs. Philadelphia

It's fourth down and goal to go in the biggest game of the year. Go for it or kick? If the decision is to go, what happens? This is an exciting scenario for sure, and from a rooting fan's interest, it'd be great to see it. But, that's not what we care about here. What we care about is finding opportunities to win bets. And we have one here. Again, oddsmakers tend to shade odds to make the betting public pay a premium on the bets they want to make: The "yes" bets. Joe Square wants to root for something to happen, not against something happening. This gives us an opportunity. First off, we need to remember that for this prop to win on a "yes" bet, a team has to a) decide to go for it on 4th down and b) score a touchdown (not a first down) on that play. History tells us this doesn't happen very often, especially in the Super Bowl. Out of the past 21 Super Bowls, this has happened just twice. Fair odds on a bet with a 91% chance of happening is -1010. Yet here we are offered a gift at -400 which is less than half of the expected odds. And, we might expect an even higher than 91% chance for this bet this season. Why? Because while we have one aggressive coach on 4th down (Nick Sirianni), you also have a conservative one in Andy Reid. Sirianni went for it 32 times but Reid only attempted 12 fourth-down conversions (second lowest in the league). While Sirianni will gamble more, Reid much prefers to kick the ball, whether that be a punt or a field goal. Given the historic rate of 91% and fair odds at over -1000, take this prop as a "NO" for a Max Play.