2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 07, 2008

07

Kansas City at New England

Sunday 09/07 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Kansas City +16.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The New England Patriots seemed destined for a 19-0 unblemished season in 2007. They were one game away from being annointed the greatest football team of all time, but the Giants had something to say about that. As good as this team was early-on in 2007, it is virtually impossible to sustain what the Patroits were doing the first half of last season. Fortunately for us, those gaudy numbers are built into this line. The Pats opened last season with eight straight covers, averaging 40 points per game. It seemed there was no pointspread big enough. Then things changed. The Pats faced a double-digit line in 10 of their last 11 games and managed just two ATS wins, finishing the season 2-9 ATS. An unstoppable offense that scored 34+ points in nine of their first ten games scored 34+ just once in their final nine games. The odds-makers made an adjustment, and the Pats just couldn't sustain the ridiculous heights they reached in the first half of the season. Make no mistake, they will again be good this year. But, I don't think they dominate as they did in the first half of last year. The Chiefs had trouble moving the ball last season, but their defense held them in games. Unfortunately, injuries piled up and the weak offense ended up wearing down a very good defense late in the year. This is a Chiefs defense that before their breakdown, held nine of eleven opponents to 20 points or less. That includes going on the road to Indianapolis and allowing just 13 to the high scoring Colts, and just 16 to the Chargers. This is an inflated line and we'll take the points.

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