2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 20, 2014
This pick was released to clients on November 20, 2014 at 2:53PM ET.
Kansas City at Las Vegas
Thursday 11/20 08:25 PM Eastern
1 unit on Kansas City -7 (-115) (risk 1 to return 1.87) RESULT: LOSS
The Oakland Raiders are 0-10 and want to win this game. But sometimes "want" doesn't cut it. This team hasn't won because they are simply bad on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Silver and Black have averaged just 276.4 yards and 15.2 points per game - worst in the league. On defense, they are allowing 365.2 yards and 26.5 points per game. And, there's no real sign of improvement over the course of the season. They lost to the lowly Jets by 5 and followed that up with a 16-point loss to the Texans. The remainder of their schedule has been tough, but they are losing big to good teams and KC qualifies as one. The Chiefs' defense is one of the best in the league. They have given up just 17.1 points per game and against anemic offenses like Oakland's, the KC defense has really shined. They allowed St. Louis 7 points and the Jets 10. KC is the seventh best in the league in yards per play allowed (5.3), despite having faced some pretty good offenses in Denver, New England and San Diego. Jamaal Charles is licking his chops as the Raiders allow 130 rushing yards per game. And, Alex Smith is at his best vs. poor pass defenses. Since last season, the Chiefs are 10-1 ATS vs. defenses like Oakland's that allow 61%+ completions. But, this is a division game which is supposed to be close right? Well, consider that the Raiders are just 23-43 ATS in their last 63 home division games including 9-26 since 2003 and 3-8 the last three and a half seasons. That includes failure when getting a lot of points. In games in which they were getting 7+ points, the Raiders are 3-6 ATS since 2003 and 1-3 over the more recent span. In contrast, Andy Reid (at Philly and KC) is 35-17 ATS on the road in division games. Lay the points.
|Kansas City ChiefsChiefs||0||3||7||10||20|
|Las Vegas RaidersRaiders||7||7||3||7||24|
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