2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 06, 2007

This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 1:06AM ET.

06

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Saturday 01/06 04:30 PM Eastern

4 units on Indianapolis -7 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)  RESULT: WIN

We feel there is tremendous line value in this game. All you hear about is how the Colts, 3-4 in their last seven games, can't stop the run. It is true... They can't! Their run defense is among the top 10 worst rushing defenses in the history of the NFL. So what did that do for the opponents that knew all they have to do is run the ball against the Colts? They must have had a lot of success, right? Well, not quite. We must not forget that they had a 12-4 season. Every opponent they faced this year ran for over 100 yards against the Colts. That included these figures at home: 108, 191, 214, 114, 111, 149, 133 and 150. Giving up that kind of yardage on the ground, the Colts must have struggled, right? No. Every one of those opponents left Indianapolis with a loss. There is a reason and his name is Peyton Manning. Manning is one of the best QB's of this era (ever, really), with some of the best receivers to which to throw. Kansas City is within 20 yards per game of being at the bottom of all NFL teams in terms of pass defense! Will they stop the Colts offense on the road? Let's look deeper at the Colts season at home. They gave up an average of 18.5 points per game. Not bad at all. But it gets better once we take out meaningless late "charity" touchdowns that were the result of Indy blowing out their opponents. The Colts led Houston 30-3 going into the 4th quarter. The final score was 43-24. They led Jacksonville 21-7 with 3 minutes left - final score 21-14. They led Washington 36-14 with :18 seconds left - final score 36-22. They led Philly 31-7 going into the 4th quarter - final score 45-21. They led Cinncinnati 31-13 going into the 4th quarter - final score 34-16. In the two close games they had they gave up just 16 and 13 points. The bottom-line is the Colts home defense gave up 11 meaningful points per game. After they had such big leads, they gave up 60 points to six teams, and four of those still ended up double digit blowouts! How many teams in the playoffs this year beat three playoff bound teams on the road? The only one to do it is the Colts. Who is the only NFL playoff team to have four wins against playoff bound teams? The Colts! Kansas City backed into the playoffs and they are one of two teams that has not beaten a playoff team on the road. This line has been held down because ESPN's talking heads focus on the fact that the Colts can't stop the run and that they lost 4 of 7 to end the season. But they have beaten much better teams in this building this year than the Chiefs. This year the Colts faced three teams better than the Chiefs on the road and all three knew the Colts could not stop the run. But Indy beat them all. In the end, this one isn't about Indy stopping LJ and the Chiefs. It's about the Chiefs stopping Manning and the Colts. KC won't be able to do it. When they needed a big home win against a very good team three weeks ago, they pounded Cincinnati. Here, a motivated Peyton Manning and the Colts will do the same to an overmatched Kansas City.

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Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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