2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 04, 2014
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Kansas City at Indianapolis
Saturday 01/04 04:35 PM Eastern
1 unit on Kansas City -1 (-115) (risk 1 to return 1) RESULT: push
1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -108 (risk 1.5 to return 1.5) RESULT: loss
I think the wrong team is favored here. The way the line has moved, it seems some agree. Indianapolis has not looked like the same team that ran the table on arguably the best teams in the NFL early in the season. Early on, the Colts beat Seattle, San Francisco and Denver over the course of a five week span. But, let's not forget that they also lost to Miami, San Diego, St. Louis, Arizona and Cincinnati. And, those big wins were with Reggie Wayne in the lineup. While the Colts have won their last three games, this team is not built for the playoffs. They don't run the ball well and without Reggie Wayne, this offense isn't the same. 26.7 After Wayne went down, this offense lost 4 points per game. Last year Indy went 11-5 despite being outgained by opponents on the season. That caught up with them as soon as the playoffs started as they lost their opening playoff game 24-7. Kansas City won just two games a year ago. This season they put their first nine in the win column, but finished just 2-5 and looks now to be a fading team. But, this team is the better team on the field today. Their offense is better and their defense is better and they have the better coach. And, they are healthy and rested with many starters taking last Sunday off. The big difference here is Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs' running attack. Teams that can run the ball well are generally good bets in the playoffs, and Kansas City generates 4.66 yards per carry. Remember, Charles went for 106 yards and a TD on just 16 carries in the loss to Indianapolis earlier this season. And because the Chiefs were behind, he did not get utilized as much as he will in this one. But the Chiefs lost to Indianapolis just a few weeks ago you say? KC didn't have Justin Houston for that game. He is an elite pass rusher and hasn't played since week 12, so the Chiefs will instantly become better defensively. Revenging playoff teams are good bets. But this game is on the road you say? The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS on the road this season and Andy Reid teams are 78-49 ATS on the road including 42-23 ATS as a road underdog. Oh yeah - Reid-led teams are also 27-10 ATS on the road revenging a loss. Take Kansas City. Also go with the UNDER. The Colts own a 21-8 mark to the UNDER in their last 29 vs. the AFC and their last four wildcard games have played UNDER as well. Kansas City is 10-2 UNDER the past three seasons when facing a good team (teams at .600 to .750). They are also 19-8 UNDER over that span when facing defenses like Indy's that allow 350+ yards per game. Play on Kansas City and take the UNDER.
|Kansas City ChiefsChiefs||10||21||10||3||44|
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