2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 13, 2015
This pick was released to clients on September 10, 2015 at 9:37PM ET.
Kansas City at Houston
Sunday 09/13 01:00 PM Eastern
1 unit on Kansas City +1.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: win
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 41 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: loss
Houston will be missing some key offensive cogs in this one with star RB Adrian Foster out with a groin injury and WR Andre Johnson gone in the offseason. Foster won't rush himself back from his groin injury, saying he needs to be "as close to 100 percent" as possible before playing in a game. Making matters more unsettling is the new QB, Brian Hoyer, a journeyman who last season had 12 TDs, and 13 picks with Cleveland. Houston has been overvalued at home by Vegas oddsmakers for a while, on a 5-11 ATS run at home. At least their defense is sound, on a 5-2 run UNDER the total, as well as 7-3 UNDER in week one when defenses are ahead of the offenses. With JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney healthy, this defense will be the team's bright spot. Into town comes Kansas City, well coached and balanced for Andy Reid. Reid prefers a ball-control attack and has one of the best running backs in the game in Jamaal Charles, averaging 5.5 yards per carry for his career. The Chiefs offense in 2014 produced an embarrassing statistic: quarterback Alex Smith did not throw a single touchdown pass to a wide receiver for the entire season. They will be better this year, adding Jeremy Maclin, but this is still a conservative, safe offense that relies on defense first. KC is 42-19-1 UNDER the total on natural grass, 6-2 UNDER in September plus on a 5-1 run UNDER the total on the road. Reid is 4-0 against Houston, winning the last meeting two years ago 17-16. The Chiefs are 8-3 ATS against the AFC and 5-1 ATS in September, and when these teams clash the road team is 5-1 against the spread. Reid-led teams are also 82-54 ATS on the road including 46-25 ATS as road dogs. Take Kansas City and the UNDER.
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