2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 17, 2013

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Kansas City at Denver

Sunday 11/17 08:30 PM Eastern

1 unit on Denver -7 (-122) (risk 1 to return 1)  RESULT: win

1 unit on Game Total UNDER 50 -115 (risk 1 to return 1)  RESULT: win

This is probably the most anticipated game of the season thus far. Kansas City and their perfect 9-0 record head to Denver to take on the 8-1 Broncos. The Chiefs are credited with the best defense in the NFL by the mainstream media. They have allowed 17 points or less in all nine games. This is the first time in history that a team has started with at least eight straight wins and be posted as an underdog. You have to ask yourself what's going on here? Do the odds-makers know something that others don't? Of course they do. They know (and I agree) that the Chiefs' defense is highly overrated. That coupled with a mediocre offense means the Chiefs are now where near your typical mid-season undefeated team. KC allows 5.5 yards per play to teams that have combined to average 5.4 yards per play, so in essence they are actually a tick below average. They have benefited from playing some of the worst offenses and QBs in the league thus far. The Chiefs offense ranks middle of the pack in points per game and well below average in yards per game. In fact, they are just 24th in the league in yards. If you break it down further to a per-play basis, it gets even worse as the Chiefs are 5th worst in the league in yards per play, generating just 4.8 per play. Alex Smith is serviceable but not built to compete with an elite QB like Peyton Manning. Since the arrival of Manning, the Broncos are 11-3 ATS as a favorite in this range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Kansas City is 11-3 UNDER the past three seasons vs. winning teams. In conference games over that span they are 20-9 UNDER. John Fox-coached teams are 24-8 UNDER at home in divisional games and 19-7 UNDER vs. poor passing teams like KC (those averaging under 5.8 passing yards per attempt). And, following a bye week, Andy Reid is 14-4 to the UNDER. The Chiefs get exposed here. Take Denver and the UNDER.

Chiefs 0 10 0 7 17
Broncos 10 7 7 3 27



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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