2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 03, 2006

This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:38AM ET.

03

Kansas City at Cleveland

Sunday 12/03 01:00 PM Eastern

5 units on Cleveland +5.5 (-110) (risk 5 to return 9.55)  RESULT: WIN

We keep coming back to this Cleveland team. We know we'll get the "are you crazy" mail on this one, especially after last week. But one of the realities of betting on sports is that sometimes your picks lose. And, when you take a large number of "ugly" underdogs, sometimes those picks lose big (30-0 in this case). What we also know though is that a 30 point loss is the same as a 1 point loss and that over the long haul, we have made killed the sportsbooks on these kinds of teams. The public can't stomach losing so big so they back the big pretty favorites - and they lose year in and year out. So, bear with us as we back a team that lost 30-0 last week at home. There are several long term trends that set this game up for us. As we stated last Monday night, teams off a big-time shutout loss are gold the following week. Their pride forces them to show up in a big way. The Browns have been competitive in most games this year. Also, the team that lost by the most points the week before has covered their next game all but once this year, and has been very strong in past years as well. Think about it. These are professional athletes with pride. Their practice this week was not fun for sure, and they can't wait to get out there and get redemption. One thing for sure, they will play 60 minutes of their best football. On top of that, Kansas City is in the perfect let-down spot, just having won their first ever T-Giving Day game. They were sky-high for that rivalry game against the Broncos and they can't be that high again this week agains the lowly Browns. They are in a sandwich game, as they will face 8-2 Baltimore next week. This one isn't about the stats, it is about the mindsets of the teams coming in. The public loves KC and it's very tough to back Cleveland. But this is, as they say, where we earn our stripes. Browns big here.

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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