2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 03, 2013
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Kansas City at Buffalo
Sunday 11/03 01:00 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Game Total OVER 40.5 -108 (risk 1.5 to return 1.5) RESULT: LOSS
I think that if you asked almost anyone at the start of the season that who the lone NFL unbeaten team entering week nine would be, none would have said Kansas City. The Chiefs have not surrendered more than 17 points in any game this season, and that certainly makes the defense look invincible. But are they? The cold hard facts are that the Chiefs have an average defense. They have allowed 5.4 yards per play to a schedule of teams that average 5.4 yards a play. They are allowing 4.7 yards per rushing attempt to teams that average 4.0. It really has been a lot of luck, and some smoke and mirrors and an easy schedule. The quarterbacks that the Chiefs have had to face (in a QB league) have been pretty bad. Buffalo has been the most consistent scoring offense in the NFL, as they have scored between 17-24 points in all seven games, and 20+ in all but one. The problem is that the defense has allowed 21+ in all seven games. So I really think the over playing of the Chiefs defense has kept the total to low here. The Bills have played the last four OVER the total and over the past three seasons, they are 19-8 OVER in the underdog role and 8-1 OVER when the total is set low (under 42.5 points). I like this one to go OVER the total.
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