2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 06, 2015
This pick was released to clients on December 03, 2021 at 1:21PM ET.
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Sunday 12/06 01:00 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Jacksonville +2.5 (+105) (risk 1.5 to return 3.08) RESULT: loss
1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 44 -110 (risk 1.5 to return 2.86) RESULT: loss
Sportsbooks know that few want to back Jacksonville on a week-to-week basis but they've been undervalued on a 4-1 spread run. The Jaguars even won at the Ravens as a dog in their last road game. Last week the Jags outgained the Chargers 420-369 in a close one. The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS following a spread loss and 7-2 ATS after a straight-up loss. The Jaguars have a conservative, ball control offense, #22 in points, on a 19-7 run UNDER the total in divisional play. They run into a terrible Tennessee Titans team with an interim coach and little to play for in the remaining five game, stuck with an 11-game losing streak at home. The Titans are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 home games, plus 14-33-4 ATS against the AFC. Tennessee has no offense, #30 in scoring (18.5 points per game) and yards, 6-2 UNDER the total at home, plus a 4-1-1 run UNDER overall. Jacksonville won the first meeting, 19-13, and is 4-0-1 ATS against the Titans, including 4-1 ATS on this field. And the UNDER is 4-0 when they meet. Play Jacksonville and the UNDER.