Jacksonville at Tampa Bay

Rebuilding Jacksonville is already improving, with a win under its belt and off a close loss at the Colts, 16-13. The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS following a loss, plus 4-0 ATS against a team with a losing record. QB Blake Bortles had the best half of his young NFL career last Sunday, completing 14 of 18 passes for 179 yards and a touchdown in the game's opening two quarters. The Jaguars almost ousted the Colts on the road but kicker Jason Myers missed two late field goals. Bortles is getting better, cutting down on his mistakes, posting a two-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio through four weeks. They are a dog again but to a bad Tampa Bay team with a rookie QB. #1 overall pick Jameis Winston has struggled with a league-leading seven picks, including a pick-six in the Bucs' loss last week to the Panthers. Winston has also only completed 54.9 percent of his passes. It should be a big day for rookie Jacksonville running back T.J. Yeldon, who gained 105 yards on 22 carries last week. The Buccaneers have allowed more than 130 yards on the ground per game this season. Turnovers mean short field position for the opposition and neither team is stellar on defense, with the Jaguars ranked #25 in points allowed (26.8 points per game) and Tampa Bay ranking #30 allowing 29.3 ppg. Jacksonville is 8-3 OVER the total after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, while the Bucs are 9-1 OVER in October when offenses start clicking. The Bucs are 0-10 at home under Lovie Smith. The wagering value is for the dog to win in a higher-scoring tilt than oddsmakers expect. Play Jacksonville to win outright and the total to finish OVER.