2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 27, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Jacksonville at New England

Sunday 12/27 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on New England -8.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The talk of late is that the Pats just aren't that good. They have gone 3-3 in their last six games and their offense has had some problems moving the ball of late, scoring just 75 points their last four games. Don't buy the hype. This team is good at home, going 7-0 and winning by 17 points per game, and scoring 31 per contest. This offensive slump won't last as this offense is simply much better than that. They are peeved and that could spell trouble for the Jags here. How serious are the Pats taking this game vs. Jacksonville? Coach Belichick is calling for a Christmas Day practice to ensure the Pats bring their "A" game to this one. Much of the talk this year has been about a Pats defense that has lost several key players and has struggled. The fact is, this team has held eight of 14 opponents to 17 points or less. They are 7-0 at home thanks to a defense that has allowed under two TDs per game (and just 10 points per game in their last four)! The Jags had everything in their own hands at 7-5, but dropped their last two to fall among the myriad of teams at 7-7. Amidst the playoff talk for the Jags lies a hidden fact - they are playing well under the line at 2-8 ATS in their last 10 weeks. The schedule has been very easy. They notched wins against the likes of Houston, St. Louis, Kansas City, the Jets and Buffalo. But when the Jags have had to face a team with a winning record, which is only four times all season, they have failed to put one in the win column. The truth is they are a mediocre team, getting outscored on the season by 4 points per game (11 per game on the road). They have a 9-21 ATS overall record the past two seasons. The Pats are often facing double-digit lines at home, but when they face a line of under 10, they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11, and 3-0 ATS this year, and are now 34-16-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10 in their last 51. The Pats are out to prove something and their offense should get untracked. With the Jags averaging 13.8 per game on the road, facing a shut-down defense here at home, this spells blowout. Remember, buy low and sell high - and right now New England is a great buy.

Jaguars 0 0 0 7 7
Patriots 7 21 0 7 35



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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