2018 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 07, 2018

This pick was released to clients on October 08, 2021 at 1:09PM ET.


Jacksonville at Kansas City

Sunday 10/07 01:00 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Kansas City -2.5 (-115) (risk 1.5 to return 2.8)  RESULT: WIN

Many wondered what Kansas City was thinking when they let go of Alex Smith this offseason. Sure, Pat Mahomes could be great some day. But, Alex Smith was coming off an amazing year! Apparently the Chiefs thought hey really thought they had something special, and they were right. Mahomes has directed what is now a very potent attack that has started 4-0. Mahomes leads the entire league in QBR rating having already thrown for 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns with no interceptions! Damn boy! While Mahomes struggled some vs. Denver last week, he showed up when it became money time, directing two scoring drives to win the game for the Chiefs. This has made the Chiefs the odds-on favorite to get to the Super Bowl. So are they a big favorite at home here? Surprisingly no! Jacksonville will be another stern test for Kansas City, as the Jaguars' defense has not allowed more than 20 points all season, and are allowing 14 points per game on average. A big factor here could be the mistake-prone pedestrian offense of the Jaguars that has turned the ball over seven times already. In contrast, Mahomes has been special in taking care of the ball and the Chiefs have just one turnover through four games. In an expected close game, turnovers and home field could be the difference maker. The normally loud KC crowd is likely to be even louder for this big one. Take Kansas City.

Jaguars 0 0 7 7 14
Chiefs 7 13 3 7 30



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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