2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 13, 2011
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Sunday 11/13 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Indianapolis PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
This game is truly an oddsmakers dilemma. You have the winless Colts at 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS facing the Jacksonville Jags who have yet to win on the road. Can both teams be underdogs? Obviously not. So what do they do? They take the worse team and stick a +3 on them. The public has spoken and are riding the Jags at over 70%. But I think this is a great spot for Indianapolis to grab their first win of the season. Jacksonville is not only 0-4 on the road this season, they are 5-18 straight-up on the road in their last 23 games! That hardly represents the kind of team that you'd want to trust on the road as a favorite. It makes it even harder to like Jacksonville here with Blaine Gabbert leading the offense on the road. Some rookies are playing well (Cam Newton, Andy Dalton), and then there is Gabbert. How bad has he been? He' owns the absolute worst QB rating of any quarterback this season at 62.0. He's looking up at Rex Grossman, Curtis Painter, John Beck, Kerry Collins and John Skelton, to name a few. The Colts have issues against the run, but with an inefficient QB taking snaps, they can cheat up and keep the Jags’ offense in third-and-long and with Mathis and Freeney chasing Gabbert. The Colts are likely to get some turnovers, or field position here and get their first win. Teams without a win from Week 9 have covered over 70% of the time with 56 tries in the books. Take Indianapolis (buy to +3.5 -125 or take at +3 -105).