2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 02, 2008

02

Jacksonville at Cincinnati

Sunday 11/02 01:00 PM Eastern

4 units on Cincinnati +7.5 (-120) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: WIN

The Cincinnati Bengals are still searching for their first win of the season. There were those that thought they had a chance last week against the then 2-4 Texans but the Bengals laid another huge egg, losing 35-6. It was Cincinnati's sixth game out of eight scoring 14 or less. Meanwhile Jacksonville comes in at a disappointing 3-4, in a season where they expected things to be much different. The Bengals were a big public favorite last week as an underdog (a rare occurance). As mentioned, they completely disappointed. So Cincinnati is now "off limits" to the betting public and the TV talking heads, as they were singed big time last week! That is exactly when it is time to jump in! The value here is actually obvious. The Bengals were 9-point home dogs vs. the Steelers two weeks ago. So this line says that the Jags are the Steelers equal? Hardly! Jacksonville is not playing like a playoff team, as they are ranked in the bottom third of the league on both sides of the ball. Those teams have been a dsaster ATS having burned their backers to the tune of 26-57 since 2000, covering just 31% of the time. Jacksonville is one of those teams that plays to the level of their competition. They have played seven games, and win or lose, none have been decided by more than a touchdown. I have an extremely strong system backing the Bengals here involving teams prior to their bye that has gone 30-5 ATS. Lots of coaches give incentives for time off as motivation and thanks to that, and the emotional benefit of winning going into a bye, I expect a good effort from Cincinnati. I know it's tough to back the lowly Bengals here after what they have done this season. But, "ugly underdogs" are where the money lines in the NFL more often than not. Teams that are 0-8 or worse are 11-4 ATS since 2000. Then there is the issue of Jacksonville. Since the 2003-04 season, the Jags have fielded some pretty good teams, finishing with 12-4, 11-5 and 9-7 marks, with playoff appearances. But even then this team was not good on the road! The last 45 times they have taken to the road, they have only won by more than 9 points four times in 44 games! The NFL is paved with bad teams collecting money every week, and here comes another! I'll take the home team and the points here.

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