Jacksonville at Baltimore

Baltimore's last two games ended 35-13 against Cincinnati and 36-10 at Buffalo, so its defense has allowed 35 or more in back-to-back weeks and 25.4 a game across eight. Jacksonville arrives off a 42-7 win over Indianapolis and has scored 196 points in seven games, 28 a game, with at least 31 in four of them. The Jaguars allow 15.9 a game, second-fewest in the league. Baltimore's offense is down to Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie who went 10 of 21 for 91 yards in his debut, with Lamar Jackson headed to injured reserve and Tyler Huntley out. I make Jacksonville's offense the driver of this total. That 15.9 rests on the league's best run defense at 3.4 yards per carry. Defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton, who was on the field when opponents managed 3.1 yards on designed runs, is done for the season. Safety Eric Murray is out for the year too, and the Jaguars give up 253.9 passing yards a game, 29th in the league. Fagnano's interception and lost fumble in Buffalo hand short fields to this Jacksonville offense. Our bankroll needs the OVER to land a little less than half the time to show a profit, and seven of Baltimore's eight games have finished OVER the posted total, so take the OVER tonight.