2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 10, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 8:15PM ET.
Indianapolis at New York
Sunday 09/10 08:15 PM Eastern
2 units on Game Total UNDER 48.5 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: WIN
Eli vs. Peyton. This one will be a fun game to watch and not only because it pits brothers against each other at QB (first time ever). It' will be great because it features two teams that have legitimate Super Bowl hopes. With all the hype, it's easy to get caught up in what these offenses have to offer. Besides the Manning brothers, we will see superstars Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress. But let's not forget about the defenses here. Coming after Peyton Manning will be Pro Bowlers Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. The G-Men added LaVar Arrington, Sam Madison, R.W. McQuarters and have a healthy Antonio Pierce back at LB. Expect much improvement to their defense this year. The Colts won't have Edgerrin James there to pick up their blitzes in this game (the way to get to Peyton of course). Indianapolis' defense, a laughing stock prior to last season, is now a very solid unit with the speedy Dwight Freeney and hard-hitting Bob Sanders. They allowed 15.4 points per game last year - second only to Chicago! And Adam Vinatieri is hoblbled. You can bet that Tony Dungy watched a lot of film of the Giants' playoff loss to the Panthers - a game in which the high-power New York offense was blanked. In week one of the NFL season, games with a posted total of 45+ go UNDER at a 78% clip. Games with a home underdog go UNDER at about 68% and games with a total around this numbner, featuring two winning teams go UNDER at about 78% too. What we have here is an inflated total based on the teams involved (winners with great offenses). They might be a bit rusty and I like the defensive improvements of the Giants and the stout Indy defense. The public loves to play the OVER, especially in primte-time TV tilts. You may get this at closer to 50 by game time. Take the UNDER here.