2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 23, 2011
Indianapolis at New Orleans
Sunday 10/23 08:20 PM Eastern
3 units on Indianapolis PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
Colts fans are in shock at an unheard-of 0-6 mark to start the season. As bad as Indy has been, they are better now than when they started the sesaon with Kerry Collins under center. Collins was generating just 4.9 yards per attempt and completing less than 50% of his passes. Curtis Painter has improved that mark tremendously at 7.9 yards per attempt and he has thrown five TD passes for a passer rating of just shy of 94. It has been worth about 5 points per game to the offense and with Painter the Colts are 2-0 ATS getting 10+. Last week they had things in hand vs. the Bengals and only a fluke fumble-turned defensive touchdown kept them from covering the spread. The week prior they had a 17 point lead vs. Kansas City but blew the lead. The reality is that this team is a few plays away form being 4-0 ATS since Painter took over. But, they are not and they have 0 wins on the season so the pointspreads in their games until they win are going to be bigger than they should be. The Saints are known for offense, and bettors love this type of team as the public lines up behind New Orleans here. The oddsmakers knew that when setting the figure, and the line is taxed and value is on the Colts as a result. Teams from Week 6 on, that have zero wins are a 62% blind ATS bet, so these hapless NFL teams are getting help from a two sources. On one side, the oddsmakers are giving them extra points. On the other side, their opponent sees an easy win and coasts through the game. Going back to when the Colts had their bad teams in the pre-Manning era and this year, they are 10-2 ATS when getting +10.5 or more. Drew Brees giveth, but also taketh away as he has eight INTs already on the season, which is on the heels of throwing 22 picks a year ago. The Saints are certainly buying into that bad team, no-show scenario as they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. a losing team. The Saints are also 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games vs. losing teams. That includes a 5-16 ATS mark vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. Under Sean Payton, the Saints are just 7-16 ATS after a game in which they gained 400+ yards. Indy should cover this huge number.